Last January I was asked to write a blog with five GRC predictions for 2015. Rather rashly I agreed, but ended my introduction with the line, “if any of them come to pass I shall remind you of them; if not, well this blog never happened right?” Unfortunately I have now been asked to revisit my predictions and comment upon my predictive abilities (or possibly the lack of them….)
- Increased culture/behaviour focus by FCA- Aha! Off to a good start I thought, the focus on behaviour initially continued apace, with the final SMR rules published being just one example. However…. the removal of Martin Wheatley, along with one or two other changes to proposed regulation during the year, does suggest that the Conservative government may be attempting to reign in the FCA powers to a degree. And (last minute update), look what has just happened with the cancellation of the FCA banking culture enquiry (30th December). So maybe I was wrong with this one after all, oops….
- Insider trading convictions overturned in US and fewer prosecutions in short term - OK, I still think I am right here, but the law moves very slowly. However there has been one high profile example so far, from October. Details here.
- Enforcement powers to be removed from UK regulators - Not there yet. But none other than Hector Sants (in a BBA commissioned report into the competitiveness of the UK Banking sector published on November 13th) is now also recommending this very course of action. Given some of the other moves by the government that can be seen as weakening the regulator’s power I still think this one is on the agenda.
- Massive cyber-crime case comes to light prompting refocus of legislation - Sony, Talk Talk, Ashley Madison (highly amusing that one), and that terrifying new word ‘ransomware’. A winner for me I think, although of course the actual legislative changes will take time to filter through.
- Impact of the election in the UK in May 2015 - The afore mentioned reigning in of the FCA, along with the significant structural change to the PRA, does suggest greater political involvement in the regulators activities. The initial effects are quite subtle, but it is only 7 months since the election and with the economy showing real signs of recovery I think it would be naive if we did not expect to see more pressure on the main regulators not to do anything that might damage that recovery.
So overall I think I did pretty well don’t you think? Four to four and a half out of five? Although the one I considered a complete banker, the increased culture/behaviour focus by FCA, has actually been rather undermined by the impact of my final prediction!
So keep an eye out for 2016’s predictions coming soon as I gaze once again into my crystal ball and give you the heads up on what 2016 has in store for the UK’s compliance community!
If you’re interested in learning with ICT, view all courses in AML, governance, risk and compliance and financial crime prevention here. You can find out more about all our courses at a free ICA Open Day/Roadshow, find out more here.
To stay updated on the latest developments in governance,risk and compliance, anti money laundering and financial crime prevention, please follow us on either LinkedIn, Facebook and Twitter where you are guaranteed to be notified when our next blog post goes live!